Iraq Parliament Elections

I got my question answered about the Iraq Election from the Baghdad Bureau of the At War, Notes from the Front Line blog on the New York Times.

Reader Q. and A. on the Iraq Elections
By ANTHONY SHADID

As the results from Iraq’s March 7 elections finally coalesce, our Baghdad correspondent Anthony Shadid is responding to readers’ questions about the election, its outcome, and the likely winners and losers in the complex negotiations that are certain to follow. Mr. Shadid joined The New York Times earlier this year after winning the Pulitzer Prize in 2004 for his Iraq coverage.

Q. Will the parties be able to use the number of seats they win in Kirkuk right away in negotiating for a coalition, since they are only provisional according to the Election Law? Will those Kirkuk seats be able to cast votes in Parliament before they are finally confirmed? Will this affect the Parliament’s vote for president, prime minister and speaker?
Noah
San Diego

A. All these are possible. My sense is that you won’t see any breakthrough – in ways good or bad – any time soon in Kirkuk. The Kurds, of course, could protest their showing in Kirkuk, but I there’s enough American engagement there right now to head off any conflict. That won’t be the case long term. My sense is that the election will solidify a balance of power that promotes a temporary status quo, with a pledge to negotiate long-term sovereignty in, say, seven years or so. On your question about the seats themselves, nothing is confirmed until the results are certified, so Kirkuk’s representation will await the seating of everyone else. The seats themselves will probably fall in line with larger coalitions that are gathered to name a prime minister. Kirkuk is a little different, since there is a provision to allow a challenge of the voter rolls, but in the end, I’m not sure that challenge will affect the final balance of the seats.