Iraq Civil War?

Here is an article posted today (from Al-Jazeera, no less) explaining the reasons why Iraq won't descend into a civil war.

Many Iraqis dismiss the possibility of civil war in their country saying the Iraqi tribal, ethnic, religious and sectarian mosaic is interconnected through blood and marriage.

Despite widespread speculation at home and abroad that Iraq is on the verge of civil war, couples from different backgrounds have been defying the theory by marriage.

Young men and women – as was the case before the US-led invasion three years ago - from different ethnic, religious and sectarian backgrounds still flock to the civil courts every morning for marriage contracts.

Personally, I think without the American presence, violence between Shiite militias, Sunni insurgents groups and Kurdish Peshmergas would escalate and there would be more overt fighting instead of low-level bombings and assassinations. The presence of the American Army keeps the leaders at the political negotiating table and acts as the backbone of support and training for the Iraqi Army and Police which is slowly over time growing stronger than and also absorbing the militias.

If the Americans left before the 4 year Iraqi unity government is in place and before the Iraqi Security forces can stand on their own feet then everything could fall apart like a house of cards and a true all-out civil war would start. I think the Iraqi inter-marriages are a glue that helps hold the country together as long the Americans help keep the violence at a "relatively" low-level between the sectarian groups.

You have to allow the cement to set before you remove the supporting props.

Here is in interesting comment from Iraq the Model.

What caught my attention recently was a statement made by the national security advisor in the interim government Mowafaq al-Rubai'I and an response to this statement from Dhafir al-Aani the spokesman of the Accord Front.

Al-Rubai'i was speaking enthusiastically about a plan to coordinate the withdrawal of MNF from Iraq with the leaders of the coalition. He said they're working on a plan to significantly reduce the number of foreign soldiers in the course of 2006 and said he expected all foreign troops to leave Iraq by the end of 2007 since "Iraqi security forces will be ready by then".

Al-Aani didn't like this statement and apparently feels that getting Iraqi troops trained and equipped isn't the main thing we need to do before the MNF can leave. He said that "we don't want the MNF to start leaving until all militias are disbanded…".

Here I see a great change in positions from what we used to see in the past two years. And especially on the Sunni side. None of the Shia leaders-except for the Sadr-were really interested in seeing the MNF leave soon and had been only talking about asking the MNF to leave because of pressures from the Sadrists and the Sunni Arabs.

But now we hear the same government happily announce that ending the presence of foreign troops in Iraq is near at the same time that Sunni Arab politicians began to change their tone and started to view the American military presence as a balancing factor!

What I see here is that Arab Sunni leaders have rearranged their priorities; except for a year or two after 2003 the Sunni never considered America their greatest enemy. Their greatest enemy had always been Iran and whoever allies with her while America ranked 2nd or 3rd (that's if not viewed as an ally) and I think this is how they view things right now.